“How do I know what's coming next?”
The dashboard has 50+ indicators. Some tell you where you have been (lagging). Some tell you where you are (coincident). And some tell you where you are going (leading). This lesson teaches you the difference — because it is the superpower of anyone who actually uses data.
Most people consume data backwards. They see unemployment numbers on the news and think “the economy is bad.” But unemployment is a lagging indicator — by the time it makes the news, the downturn started six months ago. And by the time it drops, the recovery started six months ago. If you wait for lagging indicators to move, you are always six months late.
Leading, Coincident, and Lagging — The Three Speeds
Think of driving. A leading indicator is the traffic light turning yellow — something is about to change. A coincident indicator is your foot on the brake — it is happening right now. A lagging indicator is the insurance claim — it tells you what already happened.
Every indicator on this dashboard falls into one of three categories. Knowing which is which changes everything about how you read the data.
Leading
6-18 months ahead- BoC policy rate
- Building permits
- Development permits
- Business licences
- Energy commodity prices
- Housing starts
Coincident
Real-time- Employment level
- Retail sales
- Electricity demand
Lagging
3-12 months behind- Unemployment rate
- CPI / inflation
- GDP
- Housing completions
- Vacancy rates
- Rent prices
See It in the Live Data
Here are three indicators right now — one leading, one leading, and one lagging. Notice how they can point in different directions at the same time. That divergence is information. When leading indicators turn but lagging indicators have not caught up, you are seeing the future before it arrives.
Why This Matters for You
If you are buying a house, leading indicators (permits, starts, interest rates) tell you whether supply is growing or shrinking — and whether prices are likely to rise or fall 12-18 months from now. If you are starting a business, business licence trends and energy prices tell you whether the economy is heading into a boom or a bust. If you are job hunting, permits and business formation are the earliest signals of future hiring.
In every case, the value is the same: you see the turn before the lagging indicators confirm it. By the time the news reports the trend, the leading indicators moved months ago.
So What Does This Mean For You?